The Numbers Are In: This is the Best Time in Human History

The Numbers Are In: This is the Best Time in Human History

By: Jeremiah Cutright



If you had the opportunity to choose one time period in all of human history up to today to be born into, what time would you choose? Would you grow up in Egypt to watch the Great Pyramids being built? Would you philosophize with Socrates, Plato, or Aristotle in ancient Greece? Maybe you would wish to sail the seas searching for new lands and trading routes. Or perhaps you would like nothing more than to have a seat at the table during the drafts of your country's constitution. Whatever your fantasy might be, there is only one correct answer: today.

For some inexplicable reason, we seem to romanticize the past. It is well understood that we romanticize our childhoods because we look back on simpler times when we didn't have as many responsibilities. Life was comparably easy, but this doesn't explain why our societies as a whole romanticize times before we even lived. Although it can be exciting to imagine yourself discovering places people have never been or fighting back hordes of invaders to defend your territory, life in the past was little more than three things: difficult, boring, and short. But to understand exactly why you would be a fool to choose any time other than today to choose to live, I find it helpful to look at the numbers. And the numbers show that on nearly every single conceivable metric, life today is far, far better than it has ever been, no matter where you live.

My two favorite metrics to start these conversations off are food and lifespan. This is simply because we all understand what it feels like to be hungry, and we all know that someday we will die. Because both of these concepts are easy to conceive of, it can be compelling to understand how much they have improved.

Let's start with food. Today, the average African has access to about 2,600 Calories per day (C/d). This is enough to live, but far below the 3-4,000 C/d that the most developed countries now enjoy. However, let's compare this to history. The average French of 1700 had just 1,650 Calories available, and the Chinese didn't reach 2,600 C/d until 1994.1 The average Iranian has access to more calories today than an American did in 1960. The average Spaniards Caloric intake in 1950 is similar to that of today's Indians. Even someone living in the country at this moment with the lowest access to food—the Central African Republic—eats more than someone from some of the wealthiest countries just several hundred years ago. It's not just generic calories, either. Between 1961 and 2013, protein supply in South America increased by 35%, while fat supply in Asia nearly tripled.2 And this progress isn't stopping. It is ongoing, and in many of our lifetimes, we could see the end of persistent global hunger. In 2001 the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations estimated that 13.4% of people worldwide were undernourished. However, by 2017 that had already dropped to 8.8%, effectively bringing some 350 million people out of undernourishment.3

I think you get the point I am making here; we have way more food than ever before. But not only that, our food is more nutritious, safer to eat, and available more consistently than ever before. This is especially true once you factor in the Third Horseman of the Apocalypse; Famine has ravaged societies as long as they have been around. Many today can look at famine as a historical tragedy that we no longer contend with is (like many other things) the works of fiction from not too long ago. While it is complicated to tell how common famines were in the distant past (and it is unlikely that they ever served as a constant "check" on the human population), we can look at information from the past few hundred years to get a sense of the problem. Despite predictions made back in the 1960s of massive famine due to an exploding population (see "The Population Bomb" by Paul Ehrlich), famine deaths have been on the decline. While it is tricky to understand the trends in famine, we can say a few certainties. First, famine deaths are declining; estimated global famine fatalities were around 4 million in the 1860s and 2.8 million in the 2000s, despite the global population growing by 395%.4,5 Second, the causes of famine today are much more reliant on social and political factors than environmental and human factors, making them less frequent and substantially more predictable. And thirdly, a country that does experience famine today is much more likely to get relief aid than in the years pre-dating the establishment of the UN. Admittedly, some of the worst famines in history occurred last century inside the Soviet Union and China (in particular because of the Great Leap Forward) and famines resulting from World War Two. However, there was still a slight downward trend until those events.

It is truly an astounding feat of accomplishment that large swaths of the global population have access to 50% more energy from food than they require to survive for the first time in human history. Even in the wealthiest of places, never before in history have we had to worry about overeating instead of too little (the WHO estimates that "at least 2.8 million people [die] each year as a result of being overweight or obese").6 This accomplishment is only multiplied by the long-term and developmental benefits of having enough food since proper nourishment is essential for children's physical and mental development. This explains why each generation is, on average, getting taller and has a higher IQ than the generation before it. This is so dramatic that the average person today would rank in the 98th percentile of intelligence in 1910, and the typical Japanese male has gotten 13.9 cm (5.5 in) taller since 1880.7,8

What about life and longevity? I'll start with a banger here: As recently as 1800, over 40% of children died before their fifth birthday, today it's below 4%, and below 1% in the most developed countries.9 Just a hundred years ago, in 1924, the son of then President of the United States Woodrow Wilson died from an infection on his foot at 16 years old. The thought of the child of one of the most influential people in the world dying in such a way today is simply inconceivable. Much of human history was a history of tragedy. People tended to have many more children than they do today (5 children per woman as recently as 1950, while today it is 2.4) because of several reasons, the most dominant of which is the increased survivability of birthed children, in addition to the fact that most people are no longer subsistence farmers (where a sizeable manual workforce is required, meaning that people had children literally because they needed extra help on the farm), and massive improvements in the education and empowerment of women.10 This shift has been so dramatic that although it used to be very common for each woman to have 6, 7, or even 8 children just a couple of hundred years ago, today many countries are competing with birth rates that are too low, and are experiencing or nearing a decline in the overall population.

The steep fall in child mortality also explains why the global population has boomed over the past hundred years and why average life expectancy is much higher today than in the past. Between 1950 and 2015, global average life expectancy rose by a staggering 35 years, while simultaneously, the world's total population nearly tripled.11,12 Think about that for a second. Life expectancy increased by 35 years over the course of 60 years, meaning that for every two years you lived in this period, you gained more than one back just from societal and medical advances. The life expectancy of a Mexican today is eight years more than the life expectancy of someone from Western Europe in the 1950s, and the difference between these regions in 2000 was a mere four years.13 But it's not only that we live longer, we live in good physical and mental health for longer, meaning not only is our lifespan increased, but so is our healthspan. Undoubtedly, a 70-year-old today (on average) is in much better health than a 70-year-old from 1900.

Another line of evidence that proves the positive health trend is one that most people commonly forget. Due to the democratization of the world and the bringing about more equal societies that followed, the inequality in lifespan inside countries has dramatically diminished over the past several hundred years. Although wealth inequality is again on the rise today (and in the US, it is almost at the levels seen right before the Great Depression), we must remember that historically, we are living in an incredibly equal time since in the past, almost all of the wealth used to be concentrated in the hands of just the royalty that ruled at that time.14 This equalization trend applies to health potentially even more than it does concerning wealth. Just look at France as an example. As one of the historically most unequal societies, it shouldn't be surprising to hear that the royalty tended to live substantially longer than the serfs that lived under their rule. However, after decades of democratization and the impact that the First and Second World Wars had on destroying concentrations of wealth, today the inequality of years lived between the richest and the poorest in French Society is just one-fifth of what it was around 1800.15 Nearly the same trend can be seen with the United Kingdom, the United States, Spain, Sweden, and more.

Happiness and life satisfaction are much more difficult to track because they are subjective and because we have not been paying attention to them for very long. What we can say, however, is that there is a strong correlation between income and happiness, so there is good reason to believe that we are happier today than in the past. Even on a commonsense level, this seems obvious. We work less,16 play more, and have to worry about far fewer basic needs than anyone living before us. It would seem ludicrous for me to complain about the time I spent writing this article and to try and compare my life to a subsistence farmer living in France in 1800 with a life expectancy of just 40 years, knowing that I would have to work full days every day of my life. Add to this the understanding that any surplus I produce will be taken away from me with little to no compensation and that I could be conscripted to fight a war that has nothing to do with me at any point to die for a King I never met. You can see why this life (which again was the life of the majority of the population) seems—and undoubtedly was—miserable. Today we can contact our friends at any point, and we can stay awake past the sunset because of electricity (without needing to worry about the air pollution caused by burning oil lamps inside); our homes are kept warm in the winter. Our food is cold in the summer, and we have primarily unfettered access to unlimited amounts of information. Many of us can travel anywhere on the face of the planet if we want.

Alright, so people live longer, eat more and likely live happier and more fulfilling lives. But these are just the tip of the iceberg on how the world today is better than ever before. We fight fewer wars,17 we die less from infectious disease (before Covid-19),18 and the most developed countries have massively reduced the air and water pollution burden that their citizens had to deal with for decades during the industrial revolution. In 1800, 88% of the world's population was illiterate, but it is down to 14% today.19 Contrary to how many of us feel, there is far less racism, sexism, discrimination, and overall violations of human rights than in the past. We monitor, punish, and disincentivize these acts much more heavily.20 Adjusted for inflation and purchasing power, 42.7% of the global population made less than $1.90/day in 1980, but by 2017 this had fallen to 9.3%, even while the global population increased by 3 billion people.21 On top of all of this, we are at lower risks of things like terrorism, we have greater access to better and more affordable medical care, the hole in the ozone is healing, and we are even at a lower risk of existential risks such as nuclear war. While climate change remains a problem in need of addressing, it is clear that if we ignore the impacts we are having from climate change (which are substantial), we have been progressively treating the environment better for decades. Governments have tighter restrictions on pollution of all types. We protect much more land as national parks and nature reserves. Surprisingly, the world is greening due to better reforestation practices in the logging industry and the increased amount of CO2 in the air.22

What have we learned from this? Progress has been unequal but substantial and ongoing. While the top countries have inarguably improved the fastest, the misconception that the world's poorest have been left in the dust is simply incorrect. Please don't take my admiration for complacency. As a species, it is our moral obligation to continue this trend and ensure that the poorest countries in the world can have the luxuries that the richest today enjoy in as short of a time as possible. We must continue this progress, but never forget that you are fortunate to be alive today, no matter where you live. In 2017 Barack Obama summed up the point that this article has attempted to get at by saying: "If you had to choose any moment in history in which to be born, and you didn't know in advance whether you're going to be male or female, what country you're going to be from, what your status was, you'd choose right now because the world has never been healthier or wealthier or better educated or in many ways more tolerant or less violent than it is today."







Citations


Roser, Max, and Hannah Ritchie. “Food Supply.” Our World in Data, 5 Mar. 2013, ourworldindata.org/food-supply.


Ibid


Roser, Max, and Hannah Ritchie. “Hunger and Undernourishment.” Our World in Data, 8 Oct. 2019, ourworldindata.org/hunger-and-undernourishment#depth-of-the-food-deficit.


Hasell, Joe, and Max Roser. “Famines.” Our World in Data, 10 Oct. 2013, ourworldindata.org/famines#long-term-trends-in-global-famine-mortality.


Roser, Max, et al. “World Population Growth.” Our World in Data, May 2019, ourworldindata.org/world-population-growth.


World Health Organization: WHO. “Obesity.” World Health Organization: WHO, 6 Nov. 2017, www.who.int/news-room/facts-in-pictures/detail/6-facts-on-obesity.


Nagdy, Mohammed. “Intelligence.” Our World in Data, ourworldindata.org/intelligence#nutrition-and-prosperity.


Roser, Max, et al. “Human Height.” Our World in Data, 8 Oct. 2013, ourworldindata.org/human-height#increase-of-human-height-over-two-centuries.


Roser, Max, et al. “Child and Infant Mortality.” Our World in Data, 10 May 2013, ourworldindata.org/child-mortality#child-mortality-around-the-world-since-1800.


Roser, Max. “Fertility Rate.” Our World in Data, 2 Dec. 2017, ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate.


Roser, Max, et al. “Life Expectancy.” Our World in Data, 2013, ourworldindata.org/life-expectancy.


Roser, Max, et al. “World Population Growth.” Our World in Data, May 2019, ourworldindata.org/world-population-growth.


Roser, Max, et al. “Life Expectancy.” Our World in Data, 23 May 2013, ourworldindata.org/life-expectancy#median-age-by-country.


Piketty, Thomas. “Capital in the Twenty-First Century.” The Belknap Press of Harvard University Press, 2014.


Roser, Max. “Health Inequality.” Our World in Data, ourworldindata.org/health-inequality.


Roser, Max. “Working Hours.” Our World in Data, 2013, ourworldindata.org/working-hours.


Roser, Max. “War and Peace.” Our World in Data, 2016, ourworldindata.org/war-and-peace.


Roser, Max, and Hannah Ritchie. “Burden of Disease.” Our World in Data, 2016, ourworldindata.org/burden-of-disease.


Roser, Max, and Esteban Ortiz-Ospina. “Literacy.” Our World in Data, 13 Aug. 2016, ourworldindata.org/literacy#historical-change-in-literacy.


Roser, Max. “Human Rights.” Our World in Data, 2016, ourworldindata.org/human-rights.


Roser, Max, and Esteban Ortiz-Ospina. “Global Extreme Poverty.” Our World in Data, 25 May 2013, ourworldindata.org/extreme-poverty#global-poverty-relative-to-higher-poverty-lines.


“Carbon Dioxide Fertilization Greening Earth, Study Finds.” NASA, 26 April 2016, www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard/2016/carbon-dioxide-fertilization-greening-earth.

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